On the previous day, silver concluded its trading session with an increase of 0.46%, reaching a value of 129,429. This uptick in price can be attributed to investors strategically positioning themselves in anticipation of a forthcoming interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to be announced this week. The market is nearing full pricing for a 25-basis-point cut on Wednesday, which would represent the first reduction since December.
However, there remains a contingent of participants who are still forecasting a more substantial 50 basis points decrease. The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has escalated his demands on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, advocating for a more substantial reduction in interest rates aimed at invigorating the housing market. Recent economic indicators from the United States have bolstered expectations regarding a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, particularly as the labor market exhibits unmistakable signs of weakness. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report disclosed that only 22,000 jobs were added, falling significantly short of the anticipated 75,000. Concurrently, the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, marking the highest level observed since late 2021.
On the investment front, silver ETPs saw net inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, already surpassing last year’s total. By June, global silver ETP holdings stood at 1.13 billion ounces, just 7% shy of the peak in February 2021. In June, the cumulative worth of these holdings surpassed the significant threshold of US$40 billion for the first time. In the context of European retail silver investment, a moderate recovery has been observed. Conversely, Indian retail investment has demonstrated a robust year-on-year increase of 7% in the first half of 2025, a trend largely propelled by optimistic price expectations.
From a technical perspective, the market is currently experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a decrease in open interest of 2.69%, bringing it down to 18,221, while prices have risen by 591. Silver is currently experiencing support at the level of 127,830, while a subsequent examination of 126,225 appears to be a plausible scenario. Resistance is identified at 130,330, and a movement beyond this level could potentially challenge 131,225.