Silver prices declined by 1.17% to Rs 1,45,792, reflecting profit-taking after recently reaching record highs. This surge was driven by safe-haven demand stemming from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and anticipations of additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The extended budget stalemate has postponed essential economic data publications, such as the jobs report for September, heightening uncertainty and elevating demand for precious metals. The markets are currently pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts, anticipated in October and December, which bolsters the long-term bullish outlook for silver, even in the face of short-term corrections.
From a fundamental perspective, silver is supported by a constrained supply environment, as the Silver Institute anticipates a fifth consecutive global deficit in 2025, projected at 117.6 million ounces, albeit less severe than the previous year. Meanwhile, UBS has adjusted its silver price forecasts to a range of $52–$55 per ounce by mid-2026, attributing this revision to robust investor interest and prevailing macroeconomic risks.
Global silver ETP holdings experienced a notable increase, reaching 1.13 billion ounces, bolstered by net inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, thereby bringing total holdings near historical highs. Retail investment demand in India increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating strong price expectations, whereas European demand has been steadily recovering from the lows experienced after the pandemic.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing renewed selling pressure, as evidenced by a 20.93% increase in open interest, reaching 26,019 lots. Silver exhibits support at Rs 1,44,390, and a decline beneath this level may lead to a test of Rs 1,42,995, whereas resistance is observed at Rs 1,47,490. A breakout above this resistance may drive prices to Rs 1,49,195, indicating volatility while reflecting a generally robust long-term trend.