Silver has commenced 2026 with remarkable momentum, experiencing an increase exceeding 35%—approximately Rs 85,000—as a combination of supply limitations and intensified geopolitical tensions involving the US, Iran, and Greenland has elevated demand for the white metal, leading investors to reconsider their forthcoming strategies. The rally gained additional traction this week as MCX silver futures surpassed the significant Rs 3 lakh per kg threshold. During the current trading session, prices surged by more than 2.5%, amounting to an increase of nearly Rs 8,000, reaching Rs 3,19,949 per kg. The recent surge was propelled by escalating tensions between the United States and the European Union, following US President Donald Trump’s provocative suggestion to acquire Greenland and his threats of imposing punitive tariffs on Europe. Here is the perspective offered by specialists in the field.
“Silver at $94 per troy ounce, a level once considered unthinkable, is driven by a confluence of industrial scarcity and geopolitical shifts. Analyzing the technical charts, further upward momentum in Silver is anticipated, with immediate support identified at the 20-DEMA level situated at Rs 255,100,” according to Aamir Makda. In recent sessions, despite a price increase, a bearish RSI divergence has surfaced, serving as a classic “Red flag” warning, according to Makda. It indicates that although the price continues to ascend and reach new heights, the underlying momentum propelling those increases is, in fact, diminishing. In conjunction with this observation, there is a notable decline in open interest levels to 9850 lots, coinciding with the price increase observed in the March contract, indicating a long unwinding scenario in Silver. Traders holding long positions ought to consider profit-taking at the present levels, he added.
Jigar Trivedi expressed a comparable perspective, indicating that a period of consolidation may be anticipated in the near term. Nevertheless, considering the existing political and geopolitical context, the ongoing rally could potentially reach the psychological threshold of $100 per ounce, as the overall sentiment in the international market continues to exhibit a distinctly bullish trend. Nonetheless, the risk-reward dynamic seems to be evenly matched at 1:1, taking into account the significant increase observed over the last 13 to 14 months. In rupee terms, Rs 3,30,000 per kg is identified as the forthcoming critical resistance level, he noted. From an investment perspective, this breakout represents not just a transient increase but is indicative of a more extensive structural uptrend bolstered by supply limitations and strong industrial demand, especially in solar, electronics, and electric vehicles.
Although elevated levels bring increased volatility, investors ought to concentrate on strategic positioning instead of pursuing record highs. Tactical profit-taking near these peaks is a prudent strategy for short-term traders; however, for long-term investors, silver continues to serve as a compelling hedge against inflation and market uncertainty, according to Justin Khoo. In summary, the advice is to acquire during significant declines and maintain primary holdings, ensuring that allocations are balanced while considering risk management. Akshat Garg indicated that new investors ought to contemplate the inclusion of Silver ETFs within a diversified multi-asset portfolio, while existing investors should maintain their positions. Silver distinguishes itself through its dual function as both a monetary hedge and an industrial metal, with ongoing supply shortages and strong industrial demand suggesting further upside potential amid market volatility.