Gold declined by 0.6%, closing at Rs 1,54,819, as investors processed the recent minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting, which conveyed a cautiously hawkish sentiment. Policymakers indicated that interest rates might need to remain elevated for an extended period; however, they also allowed for the possibility of reductions should inflation moderate as anticipated. The inconsistent signals, coupled with persistent geopolitical tensions, sustained market volatility.
In January, Swiss gold exports experienced an 8% decline, primarily attributed to a significant reduction in shipments to the UK. Nonetheless, there was a robust resurgence in flows to China and India in anticipation of the Lunar New Year. In India, gold commenced trading at discounts reaching $12 per ounce, as elevated prices suppressed purchasing enthusiasm. Dealers are exercising caution in their purchasing decisions, anticipating concessional imports from the UAE.
Conversely, Chinese demand exhibited resilience, with bullion fluctuating between slight discounts and modest premiums ahead of the holiday. China’s gold production increased by 3.35% in 2025, reaching 552 tonnes, whereas total consumption experienced a decline of 3.57%. This trend indicates a decrease in jewellery demand, contrasted by robust investment activity in bars, coins, and ETFs. The nation has maintained its trajectory of increasing official reserves for the 14th consecutive month.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing long liquidation, evidenced by a 4.83% decrease in open interest. Support is identified at Rs 1,53,845 and Rs 1,52,875, whereas resistance is positioned at Rs 1,56,485; a breakthrough above this threshold may challenge Rs 1,58,155.