Gold prices concluded the trading session with a notable increase, rising by 2.22% to reach Rs 155,451. This uptick reflects a persistent demand for safe-haven assets as investors respond to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the commencement of U.S.–Iran discussions in Oman. A notable decline in U.S. labor market data further reinforced sentiment. In January, job cuts escalated to 108.4K, marking the highest figure for the month since 2009. Concurrently, initial jobless claims increased to 231K, and ADP private payrolls fell short of expectations.
This sequence of underwhelming data has bolstered market anticipations regarding Federal Reserve rate reductions, with June progressively viewed as the probable initiation point. On the geopolitical front, the White House reiterated that President Donald Trump prefers a diplomatic route with Iran, keeping negotiations open while maintaining military options as a contingency. This stance continues to underpin gold’s risk premium.
Trends in the physical market exhibited a mixed performance. In India, gold premiums have significantly decreased from their decade highs, as market volatility has deterred retail purchasing. Conversely, a decline from record prices has enhanced demand in China in anticipation of the Lunar New Year. Chinese data exhibited structural support, characterized by robust investment demand across bars, coins, and ETFs, alongside ongoing central bank gold accumulation, despite a decline in jewellery consumption.
From a technical standpoint, the market is experiencing new buying activity, as evidenced by a 0.98% increase in open interest alongside a price increase of Rs 3,380. Gold exhibits immediate support at Rs 151,315; a decline beneath this level may lead prices to test Rs 147,175. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 157,675, and a sustained move above this level could potentially lead to Rs 159,895.