Gold prices concluded the session at Rs 143,309, reflecting a decline of 1.9%. This drop can be attributed to escalating crude oil prices, which have intensified inflation worries in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for October 27-28. Brent crude reached its peak since May, driven by renewed Houthi assaults in Saudi Arabia, which have heightened worries regarding the intensification of regional conflict and the possibility of interruptions to global oil supplies. US consumer and producer inflation surpassed expectations, reinforcing the argument for a more stringent monetary policy, even as the Fed is anticipated to maintain current rates at its forthcoming meeting. Goldman Sachs projects a 25-basis-point rate increase in December, as traders assign an 86% likelihood to this adjustment.
Meanwhile, COMEX gold speculative net long positions decreased by 3,741 contracts to 111,079 in the week ending October 13, reflecting a decline in investor optimism. In physical markets, Indian gold premiums increased to $7 per ounce above domestic prices, driven by lower prices that stimulated jewellery purchases. Meanwhile, September gold imports saw a significant decline, falling to $1.8 billion from $9.6 billion in the same month last year. China’s central bank has continued its gold acquisition for 23 consecutive months, raising its holdings to 77.47 million fine troy ounces in September, up from 76.73 million ounces in August. However, the value of these reserves has decreased to $323.52 billion.
In September, Swiss gold exports experienced a month-on-month increase of 6%, reaching 165.2 tonnes. This rise was bolstered by record shipments to Britain, a trend not seen since at least 2012, despite a decline in exports to both China and India. Goldman Sachs upheld its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per ounce, highlighting ongoing central bank diversification as a significant long-term catalyst, even in light of potential near-term corrections due to tighter monetary policy. Gold is currently experiencing new selling pressure, as evidenced by a 0.29% increase in open interest to 16,645 contracts, while prices have decreased by Rs 2,770.
This suggests that fresh positions are being established in conjunction with the decline in price. Support is positioned at Rs 142,520, with additional support at Rs 141,740. Resistance levels are identified at Rs 144,610 and Rs 145,910. A sustained break below immediate support could extend bearish momentum; conversely, a recovery above Rs 144,610 may enhance sentiment and pave the way toward the subsequent resistance level.
