Gold settled marginally lower by 0.05% at Rs 1,48,823, as investors exhibited caution ahead of significant US economic data that may offer new insights into the Federal Reserve’s trajectory regarding interest rates. Markets are currently assigning a 68% likelihood to a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, alongside a 95% probability of an additional increase in December, which continues to exert pressure on non-yielding bullion. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack cautioned that persistently high inflation might lead consumers to acclimatise to elevated prices, thereby solidifying expectations that monetary policy could continue to be restrictive.
Investors are meticulously observing the upcoming ADP employment report, PCE inflation data, and remarks from various Federal Reserve policymakers for additional guidance. Meanwhile, physical demand in India exhibited a modest improvement as the recent price correction stimulated purchasing activity in anticipation of the festive season. Indian dealers reported discounts reaching $43 per ounce, a decrease from the previous week’s highs of $60, as jeweller purchases saw an uptick throughout the week.
Asian demand exhibited a stable trend, with Singapore premiums ranging from 1.70 to 2.50, Hong Kong premiums between 1.70 and 2.00, and Japan experiencing fluctuations between a $0.25 discount and a $0.50 premium. London vault holdings reached 9,534 tonnes at the end of July 2026, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.74% and valued at around $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs upheld its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 per ounce, indicating that a tighter monetary policy could impede the near-term appreciation trajectory while leaving the longer-term outlook unchanged.
It cautioned that three further rate increases could drive prices to approximately $4,070 before a rebound toward $4,200 by the conclusion of 2026, bolstered by ongoing central-bank acquisitions. Technically, fresh selling pressure emerged as open interest increased by 5.33% to 15,587, while prices declined by Rs 74. Gold is presently encountering support at Rs 1,47,905, and a persistent breach beneath this threshold may pave the way toward Rs 1,46,990. On the upside, resistance is positioned around Rs 1,49,980, beyond which prices may approach Rs 1,51,140.
