Gold settled 0.14% higher at Rs 1,49,036, buoyed by softer-than-expected US inflation data that bolstered expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at their current levels during the upcoming October meeting. The headline PCE price index rose 0.3% month-on-month, while core PCE increased 0.2%, indicating relatively moderate inflation pressure. However, revised data indicated that US Q2 GDP growth was at 2.2%, significantly surpassing the previous estimate of 1.5%, while Q1 growth was also adjusted upward, underscoring ongoing economic resilience.
US company hiring also strengthened in September, as markets anticipate Friday’s employment report, with payrolls projected to increase by 90K. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack cautioned that persistently high inflation might become ingrained in public expectations, which could restrict the potential for policy easing. In India, physical gold demand saw a modest improvement as lower prices drew in buyers in anticipation of the festive season, resulting in a reduction of dealer discounts to approximately $43 per ounce, down from $60 the previous week. Singapore premiums were observed in the range of 1.70-2.50, Hong Kong exhibited a range of 1.70-2.00, whereas Japan experienced fluctuations between a $0.25 discount and a $0.50 premium.
London vault holdings rose by 0.74% month-on-month, reaching 9,534 tonnes at the end of July 2026, with a valuation of approximately $1.2 trillion, which corresponds to around 762,723 gold bars. Goldman Sachs upheld its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 per ounce, attributing this to ongoing central-bank diversification as a significant structural driver. However, it cautioned that a more hawkish Federal Reserve could lead to a temporary decline in prices toward $4,070 before a rebound to $4,200 by the end of 2026.
Technically, the market continues to exhibit renewed buying interest, as evidenced by an increase in open interest of 0.83% to 15,716, alongside a price appreciation of Rs 213. Gold is presently encountering support around Rs 1,48,255, and a decline beneath this threshold may reveal Rs 1,47,470. On the upside, resistance is observed near Rs 1,50,460, while a sustained movement above this level could pave the way toward Rs 1,51,880.
