Silver concluded the trading session with a decline of 1.27%, settling at Rs 222,877. This downturn was influenced by apprehensions regarding a more stringent US monetary policy, particularly in anticipation of critical consumer and producer price inflation data that may impact the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming policy decisions. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem have suggested that additional monetary tightening could be required to return inflation to target levels. However, the CME FedWatch tool currently indicates an 82.8% likelihood that interest rates will remain steady following last month’s quarter-point increase, with another hike anticipated by December.
Despite recent price weakness, delegates at the London Bullion Market Association’s annual gathering forecast silver prices reaching $97 per ounce over the next 12 months, compared with the current level of $61. Perth Mint silver sales experienced a remarkable increase of 81.3% month-on-month, reaching 605,408 ounces in September, marking the highest level since March, and reflecting a year-on-year rise of 4.6%. London’s silver vault holdings increased by 0.5% month-on-month, reaching 28,213 tonnes at the close of July 2026. This amount is valued at $52.7 billion and is roughly equivalent to 940,423 silver bars.
According to the Silver Institute and Metals Focus, the global silver market is poised for its sixth consecutive annual structural deficit, with the anticipated shortfall increasing to 46.3 million ounces in 2026, up from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from stocks since 2021, underscoring the persistent supply tightness even as market liquidity shows signs of improvement. Total silver demand is projected to decrease by 2% in 2026, with industrial fabrication anticipated to drop by 3%, reaching a four-year low due to sluggish economic growth and diminished consumption in both industrial and jewellery sectors. Conversely, demand for coins and bars is anticipated to rise by 18%, bolstered by a resurgence in investment demand within the United States.
Total global silver supply is projected to decline by 2%. Silver is currently experiencing renewed selling pressure, as evidenced by a 4.24% increase in open interest to 17,605 contracts, alongside a price decline of Rs 2,878. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 221,735, succeeded by Rs 220,585. Resistance is observed at Rs 224,950, and a sustained movement above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 227,015, whereas a breach below support may prolong the existing bearish momentum.
