Gold prices continued their upward trajectory, closing with an increase of 1.29% at Rs 1,39,873, bolstered by anticipations of additional easing measures from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical tensions. The US economy demonstrated resilience in the third quarter, with GDP growth outpacing the prior period, while labor market metrics indicated ongoing, albeit gradually decelerating, job creation. Markets are currently factoring in two rate cuts in 2026, reflecting a cooling of inflation and a softening of employment conditions, even as policymakers exhibit divided perspectives.
Geopolitical risks have further heightened safe-haven demand following the US blockade of oil tankers associated with Venezuela. Gold has increased by nearly 70% year-to-date, setting the stage for its most robust annual performance since 1979, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and significant inflows into gold-backed funds. In the physical market, unprecedented prices have suppressed retail demand.
Gold discounts in India have expanded to levels not seen in over six months, with dealers now providing discounts reaching $61 per ounce, a notable increase from $37 observed the previous week. In China, discounts have contracted significantly to $15–30 per ounce, down from last week’s five-year peaks of $64, suggesting a degree of stabilization in purchasing interest. In other markets, gold was observed at slight premiums in Singapore and Hong Kong, whereas Japan experienced a combination of discounts and premiums.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new buying activity, as evidenced by a 1.94% increase in open interest to 14,832, coinciding with a price rise of Rs 1,776. Gold exhibits a support level at Rs 1,38,805, with additional downside potential identified at Rs 1,37,745. Resistance is identified at Rs 1,40,695, with a potential breach leading to a test of Rs 1,41,525.