Silver prices concluded the trading session with a significant increase of 1.53%, reaching Rs 2,74,265. This increase was supported by a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields and persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the stalemate in U.S.-Iran negotiations. The decline in U.S. bond yields from recent multi-month highs has bolstered sentiment for precious metals, while concerns about a potential escalation in the Middle East have maintained safe-haven buying interest. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson noted that monetary policy is presently “mildly restrictive” and indicated that a potential rate increase could be considered if inflation risks persist or if economic growth exceeds expectations.
Market expectations for a more stringent monetary policy have become more pronounced, with CME FedWatch data indicating an approximately 48.6% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in the Federal Reserve’s rate by December. Strong physical demand from China has notably supported silver prices. China’s March silver imports reached a historic high of 836 metric tonnes, nearly three times the average for March in previous years. This surge was propelled by strong retail investment demand and considerable stockpiling by the photovoltaic sector in anticipation of alterations to export tax rebates. Increased domestic silver prices in China have prompted a surge in global arbitrage shipments, particularly through Hong Kong.
Meanwhile, London vault silver holdings saw a modest decline of 0.1%, amounting to 27,454 tonnes at the end of April 2026. In India, the government has implemented immediate restrictions on the importation of silver bars with 99.9% purity and semi-manufactured silver products. This measure seeks to address the rising volume of imports and mitigate the strain on the rupee. The action is expected to limit domestic supplies and may lead to an increase in local premiums.
India’s silver imports saw a significant rise in the last fiscal year, driven by investment demand and strong ETF inflows that boosted consumption. Technically, the market is witnessing a resurgence in buying activity, as evidenced by a 0.14% increase in open interest to 9,114 lots, alongside notable price escalations. Support is identified at Rs 2,68,645, with subsequent support at Rs 2,63,025. Resistance is observed at levels of Rs 2,78,090 and Rs 2,81,915.