Gold prices experienced a decline of 0.52%, settling at Rs 158,519. This movement was influenced by stronger-than-anticipated U.S. economic data, which in turn elevated Treasury yields and solidified expectations for additional monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note climbed to 4.49% following the release of ADP data, which indicated that private sector employment rose by 122,000 jobs in May. This figure exceeded market expectations and represented the most significant increase since January 2025. Additionally, JOLTS data revealed that job openings rose to their highest level since November 2024, underscoring the ongoing strength in the U.S. labour market.
Consequently, markets currently reflect an 85% likelihood of a quarter-point increase in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate by the end of the year. In April, Swiss gold exports experienced a decline of 20%, primarily attributed to reduced shipments to the UK and China. Conversely, there was an uptick in exports to India and Hong Kong. Central bank demand continues to be a significant supportive element, as Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for average central bank purchases to approximately 60 tonnes per month until 2026. Despite some downward revisions in long-term price forecasts by JPMorgan and Commerzbank, both institutions maintain their outlook for structurally strong demand for gold in the years ahead.
Physical demand exhibited a varied landscape across principal consuming regions. Indian buyers exhibited caution in response to high prices and import duties, resulting in increased discounts, whereas premiums in China contracted in the context of muted sentiment. Investment demand in India exhibited remarkable strength, increasing by 52% year-on-year in the March quarter and exceeding jewellery consumption for the first time in recorded history. In the first quarter of 2026, global demand for gold experienced a 2% increase, bolstered by robust investment inflows and consistent purchases by central banks.
Technically, the market is experiencing new selling pressure, as open interest increased by 0.27% to 8,240 contracts while prices fell significantly. Gold has immediate support at Rs 157,850, with a breach of this level likely to test Rs 157,175. On the upside, resistance is observed at Rs 159,470, and a sustained move above this level could potentially pave the way toward Rs 160,415.