As the dollar index rose to 99.5 from a three-month low of 98.8, silver finished drastically lower by 1.64% at Rs 236,704. Meanwhile, short-term Treasury yields increased following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s tougher stance on inflation. Warsh cautioned that inflation has not significantly abated and emphasised that the Federal Reserve must stay committed to restoring PCE inflation to its established 2% target, thereby heightening expectations of stricter monetary policy and constraining potential gains in precious metals. However, downside pressure in silver remained relatively contained as concerns over dollar debasement resurfaced following the US Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of older, long-dated bonds.
Meanwhile, preliminary US labour market data indicated that nonfarm payrolls for the year through March may be revised downward by approximately 79,000. This development underscores the cooling employment conditions and could bolster expectations for eventual monetary easing, even in the face of ongoing inflationary pressures. London silver vault holdings reached 28,082 tonnes at the conclusion of June 2026, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.7% and valued at approximately $53.1 billion, which corresponds to around 936,052 silver bars.
Fundamentally, the silver market is approaching its sixth consecutive structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces withdrawn from stocks since 2021, maintaining a heightened risk of renewed liquidity tightness. The global deficit for 2026 is anticipated to expand to 46.3 million ounces, up from 40.3 million in 2025, even as total demand is expected to decrease by 2%, alongside a projected 2% decline in total supply. Industrial fabrication is projected to decrease by 3%, reaching a four-year low, whereas demand for coins and bars may increase by 18%, bolstered by heightened investment demand in the United States.
Technically, the market is experiencing long liquidation, as evidenced by a significant decline in open interest, which has dropped by 18.34% to 5,446. Concurrently, prices have decreased by Rs 3,947, reflecting considerable position unwinding. Silver is presently encountering support around Rs 233,070, and a persistent breach beneath this threshold may lead prices to decline toward Rs 229,435. On the upside, resistance is positioned around Rs 243,115, and a decisive movement beyond this threshold could pave the way toward Rs 249,525.
