Silver settled up 0.42% at Rs 240,651 as the 10-year US Treasury yield edged higher to 4.65%, while investors assessed fresh US economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. The US PCE price index increased by 0.2% in July, surpassing the anticipated 0.1%, while the annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.7%, compared to forecasts of 3.6%. Core PCE rose by 0.2% on a month-on-month basis and 3.3% year-on-year, aligning with expectations. Concurrently, consumer spending and income figures also exceeded forecasts modestly.
US GDP expanded by 1.5% in the second quarter, consistent with initial estimates, while durable goods orders increased by 1.1% in July, surpassing the anticipated growth of 0.5%. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores surged 62.5% year-on-year in June, reaching 219,000 tonnes, underscoring robust demand for raw materials. Citi maintained its bullish outlook, forecasting silver at $75 per ounce over the next three months and potentially reaching $90 over six to 12 months, supported by stronger investment demand, easing geopolitical tensions, and expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve.
London silver vault holdings reached 28,082 tonnes at the end of June 2026, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.7%. This amount is valued at $53.1 billion and is roughly equivalent to 936,052 silver bars. The global silver market is anticipated to persist in a structural deficit for the sixth consecutive year, with a depletion of stocks amounting to 762 million troy ounces since 2021. The 2026 deficit is anticipated to expand to 46.3 million ounces, up from 40.3 million in 2025, even as total demand is expected to decrease by 2%, alongside a forecasted 2% decline in total supply. Industrial fabrication is projected to decrease by 3%, while demand for coins and bars may increase by 18%, thereby offering support to prices.
Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, as evidenced by a 13.82% decline in open interest to 6,445, while prices increased by Rs 1,013, suggesting buying support in the context of reduced positions. Silver is currently finding support at Rs 237,350. A sustained break below this level could potentially lead to a decline toward Rs 234,055. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 243,470, and a decisive move above this level could catalyse additional gains toward Rs 246,295.
