Gold settled 0.54% higher at Rs 1,50,120, supported by easing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month after US job growth slowed more than expected in September and prior-month payrolls were revised lower, although gains remained capped by a firmer dollar and elevated Treasury yields. The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields reached 24-year highs, reflecting persistent pressure in the bond market. Markets still price an 87% probability of a December rate hike, while September US services activity slowed, even as strong domestic demand strained supply chains and pushed input prices to their highest level in more than four years, highlighting continued inflation risks into 2027.
HSBC reduced its average 2026 gold forecast to $4,490 per ounce from $4,560, citing expectations of further US rate hikes and higher oil prices, while its 2027 forecast was lowered to $4,825. Physical demand across key Asian markets improved modestly as lower prices attracted buyers, with Indian demand expected to benefit from Dussehra and Diwali. Indian dealers quoted discounts of up to $14 per ounce, narrowing sharply from $43 last week, while China traded at 5-10 premiums.
Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan saw prices ranging from modest discounts to premiums. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July, up 0.74% month-on-month and valued at $1.2 trillion, equivalent to around 762,723 bars. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 forecast at $5,400, citing continued central-bank diversification as a structural bullish driver, although a more hawkish Fed could temporarily push gold toward $4,070.
Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 0.88% to 16,179 while prices gained Rs 804. Gold has support at Rs 1,49,025, and a break below this level could trigger a decline toward Rs 1,47,925. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 1,50,900, and a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs 1,51,675.
