Gold prices concluded the trading session with a decline of 0.93%, settling at Rs 151,299. This decrease was influenced by a robust dollar and assertive remarks from officials of the US Federal Reserve, which bolstered anticipations of a more stringent monetary policy. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% and indicated that another hike could occur before the end of the year, with markets pricing a 53% probability of an October rate increase. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin stated that elevated rates and the potential for additional tightening might dampen business inflation expectations and alleviate price pressures, all while not substantially undermining economic activity.
Geopolitical uncertainty persisted at a high level following US President Donald Trump’s cautioning of significant repercussions for Iran, while simultaneously suggesting that a potential accord might arise from continued diplomatic initiatives. Despite near-term pressure, Standard Chartered indicated that gold continues to benefit from robust support stemming from official-sector demand and underlying structural factors, although the rate of appreciation may decelerate. Swiss gold exports rose 65% month-on-month in August, with shipments to the UK surging to 102.1 tonnes from 39.5 tonnes in July, while exports to China increased 20% to 26.1 tonnes and shipments to India declined 58% to 3.5 tonnes.
Indian demand remained subdued as buyers awaited lower prices, with domestic dealers offering discounts of up to $60 per ounce, while Chinese bullion traded at a $5 premium. China’s central bank has augmented its gold reserves for the sixth consecutive month in August, thereby extending its purchasing streak to a total of 22 months. London vault holdings stood at 9,534 tonnes at end-July, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs upheld its end-2027 projection at $5,400 per ounce, attributing this to ongoing central-bank diversification as a fundamental driver.
Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 9.47% to 6,570 while prices fell Rs 1,417. Gold now finds support at Rs 150,575, and a break below could expose Rs 149,855. Resistance is placed at Rs 152,490, while a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 153,685.
