Gold prices experienced a decline of 1.72%, concluding at Rs 1,55,736. This downturn can be attributed to a stronger U.S. dollar and diminishing expectations for imminent interest rate reductions, which have impacted the metal’s conventional safe-haven allure. The decline occurred simultaneously with a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields, leading to diminished investor appetite for non-yielding assets such as gold. However, the market exhibited a degree of stability following U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s indication that Iranian tankers are permitted to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz.
This development alleviated immediate concerns regarding supply disruptions, contributing to a decline in crude prices toward $95 per barrel. Despite the recent pullback, geopolitical tensions persist, offering a foundational layer of support as the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran progresses into its third week. Investors are monitoring reports regarding a potential multinational coalition focused on securing shipping routes, as any indications of de-escalation could lead to a reduction in the risk premium associated with gold. In the physical market, regional demand trends exhibit a heterogeneous pattern.
In India, gold discounts have expanded to $83 per ounce, marking the most significant level in almost ten years, indicative of subdued demand coupled with elevated import duties. Conversely, robust purchasing activity in China elevated local premiums to $20–$30 per ounce, marking a notable increase compared to the prior week.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing new selling activity, as open interest increased by 0.15% to 7,856 lots, while prices declined by Rs 2,730. Immediate support is observed at Rs 1,54,595, with a breach beneath this threshold likely to challenge Rs 1,53,460. On the upside, resistance is anticipated around Rs 1,57,195, and a breach of this threshold may propel prices towards Rs 1,58,660.