Gold increased by 1.09% to close at Rs 153,434, as investors exercised caution while evaluating the tenuous U.S.–Iran ceasefire and the persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While a temporary truce exists, lingering disputes and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz sustain a heightened level of uncertainty. A marginally weaker dollar contributed to price support, allowing the metal to remain close to its peak level since mid-March.
On the macro front, the sentiment is varied yet generally favorable. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting revealed that certain policymakers remain apprehensive about ongoing inflationary pressures, particularly as increasing energy prices contribute to the situation.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted the problematic timing of the oil shock, while robust U.S. labor data—evidenced by a nonfarm payroll increase of 178,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.3%—has resulted in markets predominantly dismissing the possibility of rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, central bank demand remains robust, as evidenced by China extending its gold-buying streak for the 17th consecutive month, indicating a persistent long-term confidence in the metal.
The market is currently experiencing new buying activity, evidenced by a 1.1% increase in open interest to 7,385, coupled with a price increase of Rs 1,658. Immediate support is identified at Rs 151,525, and a breach below this level would potentially lead to Rs 149,620. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 154,455, and a sustained movement above this threshold could propel prices toward Rs 155,480.