Gold prices ended the trading session up by 0.54%, reaching Rs 159401, as investors closely monitored potential developments in the resolution of the Iran conflict. Market sentiment exhibited a notable enhancement in response to reports suggesting that the United States may ease sanctions on Iranian oil exports, coupled with the potential for Iran to agree to a prolonged suspension of its nuclear program. Nevertheless, the increases were constrained as robust U.S. inflation figures sustained support for the dollar and Treasury yields, diminishing anticipations for Federal Reserve rate reductions this year and even rekindling speculation regarding a potential rate increase before the year’s conclusion.
Support for bullion remained strong, fueled by continued significant acquisitions from central banks. Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook for central bank gold purchases, now estimating an uptick to around 60 tonnes per month through 2026. This adjustment is linked to persistent diversification requirements amid geopolitical uncertainties. JPMorgan has adjusted its forecast for the average gold price in 2026, lowering it to $5,243 per ounce from an earlier projection of $5,708. Nonetheless, the firm maintains an optimistic long-term perspective, projecting that prices will approach $6,000 per ounce by the conclusion of 2026, driven by a forecasted resurgence in investment demand.
In India, the demand for gold has exhibited indications of decline subsequent to the rise in import duties on gold and silver from 6% to 15%. This has led to remarkable discounts, with figures soaring to $207 per ounce in contrast to official domestic prices. Meanwhile, China maintained strong premiums between $15 and $20 per ounce, driven by steady investment demand. Data from the World Gold Council revealed that India’s investment demand surged by 52% year-on-year, achieving 82 tonnes in the March quarter, while global gold demand exhibited a slight increase of 2%, amounting to 1,230.9 tonnes.
From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, as indicated by a 4.12% decline in open interest to 6929, coupled with a price rise of Rs 854. Gold is currently finding support at Rs 157875; a drop below this threshold may lead to prices approaching the Rs 156350 level. Resistance is established at Rs 160595, and a movement exceeding this level could drive prices toward Rs 161790.