Gold prices concluded the trading session with a slight increase of 0.18%, reaching Rs 152,530. This uptick can be attributed to a growing optimism surrounding a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran, which has alleviated fears regarding sustained inflationary pressures and the likelihood of aggressive interest rate hikes. In light of recent hostilities between the US and Iran, both parties have signaled that the month-long ceasefire is still in effect, contributing to a stabilization of market sentiment. Investors evaluated the most recent US labor market data, revealing that the economy added 115,000 jobs last month, considerably exceeding expectations of 62,000, underscoring the ongoing resilience of the US economy.
In light of the latest data, market participants have modestly adjusted their forecasts for Federal Reserve rate increases by December, as indicated by CME FedWatch, which now reflects a probability of approximately 14%. Since the onset of the conflict in late February, gold prices have experienced a decline exceeding 10%. This downturn can be attributed primarily to the surge in oil prices, which has exacerbated inflationary pressures and bolstered anticipations of increased interest rates. Nonetheless, persistent purchases by central banks have continued to offer fundamental support to bullion. China’s central bank has augmented its gold reserves for the eighteenth consecutive month, culminating in holdings of 74.64 million fine troy ounces by the close of March. Physical demand trends exhibited a heterogeneous pattern across principal consuming nations. In India, gold demand remained muted as elevated prices deterred retail purchases in anticipation of the wedding season.
Dealers provided discounts reaching $15 per ounce relative to official domestic prices, as April gold imports are projected to decline to approximately 15 metric tons, marking a near 30-year low, attributed to unforeseen tax-related disruptions affecting banks. In contrast, China sustained robust premiums ranging from $14 to $20 per ounce, bolstered by safe-haven demand. The World Gold Council indicated that India’s investment demand for gold experienced a remarkable increase of 52% year-on-year in the March quarter, reaching 82 metric tons, thereby exceeding jewellery demand for the first time in recorded history.
In the first quarter of 2026, global gold demand experienced a year-on-year increase of 2%, reaching a total of 1,230.9 metric tons. From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a 2.12% decrease in open interest, which settled at 9,206 lots, while prices increased by Rs 269. Gold is finding support at Rs 152,010, with potential for additional declines toward Rs 151,485. Resistance is identified at Rs 153,250, and an upward movement beyond this threshold may drive prices towards Rs 153,965.