Gold prices commenced higher for the third consecutive session on the MCX on Thursday, buoyed by a depreciating U.S. dollar, declining Treasury yields, and softening oil prices, amidst increasing optimism regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the domestic market, silver futures for September 2026 delivery increased by Rs 228, reaching Rs 2,27,812 per kg. Gold futures for October 2026 delivery increased by Rs 757 to Rs 1,49,250 per 10 grams. With today’s increase, the two have risen by Rs 11,016 (5.2%) and Rs 6,335 (4.4%) over the course of three sessions. The rally gathered momentum as optimism increased regarding the potential for a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East nearing fruition. That has exerted downward pressure on oil prices and diminished expectations for additional interest rate hikes by central banks, establishing a conducive environment for gold.
A proposed agreement between Iran and Oman, intended to resolve the five-month conflict between Iran and the United States, would grant Tehran control over vessels entering the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, according to a senior Iranian source. Oil prices experienced a decline on Thursday. Spot gold has declined by 19% since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict on February 28, driven by concerns regarding energy-induced inflation that have heightened expectations for increased interest rates. Gold generally exhibits superior performance in a low interest rate environment, as it does not provide any yield. Reflecting the improved sentiment, market expectations of a U.S. rate hike in September eased to 55% from 67% two days earlier.
Spot gold increased by 1.4% to $4,133.83 per ounce, marking its highest level in a fortnight. U.S. gold futures experienced an increase of 1%, reaching a value of $4,191.90. Spot gold increased by 1% to $4,285.84 per ounce, reaching its highest level since June 18. The precious metal recorded its most significant single-day increase since February on Wednesday. Among other precious metals, spot silver increased by 0.1% to $62.16 per ounce. Platinum increased by 1.7% to $1,764.10, reaching its highest level since June, whereas palladium advanced by 1.1% to $1,377.83, marking a third consecutive session of gains. Manoj Kumar Jain anticipates that gold and silver prices will exhibit volatility this week, influenced by variations in crude oil prices, shifts in the dollar index, and persistent geopolitical tensions.
He asserts that gold has support in the $4,264-4,220 per troy ounce range, while resistance is positioned at $4,355-4,400. Silver exhibits support within the range of $61.10 to $60.00 per troy ounce, while resistance is observed between $63.60 and $65.00 in the current trading session. On the MCX, support for gold is observed at Rs 1,47,200-1,46,000, while resistance is noted at Rs 1,50,000-1,51,500. For silver, support is established at Rs 2,25,500-2,23,000, whereas resistance is observed at Rs 2,30,000-2,34,400. Jain advises purchasing gold when it exceeds Rs 1,48,800, with a stop loss set beneath Rs 1,47,400, aiming for targets ranging from Rs 1,50,500 to Rs 1,51,100. He also advises purchasing silver above Rs 2,29,100, with a stop loss set below Rs 2,26,000, targeting levels of Rs 2,31,000 to Rs 2,33,300.