Gold concluded the trading session with a 0.44% increase, reaching Rs 152,402, as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields eased from their recent peaks. This development bolstered demand for the safe-haven asset, while market participants looked ahead to the U.S. payrolls data for additional insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. Geopolitical tensions have bolstered prices as the U.S. and Iran have resumed a war footing after their most significant exchange in several weeks, thereby heightening demand for safe-haven assets. Markets are currently reflecting a 68% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, as Fed Governor Michael Barr suggested that ongoing inflation may necessitate elevated rates. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has indicated that the central bank might need to tighten policy should confidence in inflation’s return to the 2% target diminish.
In the physical market, Indian gold discounts have expanded significantly to reach $135 per ounce, up from $65 the previous week. This represents the most substantial discount observed in three months, driven by sluggish demand and speculation regarding a potential reversal of the government’s recent hike in gold and silver import duties from 6% to 15%. China reported discounts ranging from $2 to $5 per ounce, whereas Singapore, Hong Kong, and Japan traded close to the global benchmark. Meanwhile, London vault gold holdings increased by 0.74% month-on-month, reaching 9,534 tonnes at the end of July 2026. This amount is valued at approximately $1.2 trillion and is equivalent to around 762,723 gold bars.
Technically, the market continues to experience short covering, as evidenced by a 5.94% decline in open interest to 10,617 contracts. Concurrently, prices have increased by Rs 673, suggesting the presence of fresh buying support in conjunction with position unwinding. Gold is presently encountering support around Rs 150,425, and a persistent breach beneath this threshold may initiate additional decline toward Rs 148,450. On the upside, resistance is positioned around Rs 153,615, and a decisive movement beyond this threshold could pave the way toward Rs 154,830.
