Silver concluded the trading session with a 0.35% increase, reaching Rs 236,266, as investors recalibrated their expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory in light of disappointing U.S. labour statistics and a halt in the upward momentum of oil prices. In August, U.S. private businesses recorded a mere addition of 38,000 jobs, marking the weakest increase since January and falling short of the anticipated 47,000. This development suggests a continued cooling trend in the labour market. Despite this, markets raised the likelihood of a September Fed rate hike to 66% from approximately 40% a week prior, while the U.S. dollar hovered near a two-week high, constraining silver’s potential for appreciation.
Geopolitical risks have persisted at high levels following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets, which prompted a response from Tehran. This situation has bolstered interest in safe-haven assets while simultaneously heightening apprehensions regarding global economic growth. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is anticipated to increase interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on September 9–10. Speculative positioning continued to show support, as COMEX silver net long positions increased by 2,467 contracts, reaching a total of 13,235 contracts for the week ending August 25.
At the end of July, London vault holdings experienced a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, reaching a total of 28,213 tonnes. This amount is valued at approximately $52.7 billion, which is equivalent to around 940,423 silver bars. Fundamentally, the silver market is anticipated to experience its sixth consecutive structural deficit, with 762 million ounces extracted from inventories since 2021. The global deficit for 2026 is projected to expand to 46.3 million ounces, an increase from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, even as total demand is anticipated to decrease by 2%. Industrial fabrication is projected to decrease by 3%, whereas demand for coins and bars is anticipated to increase by 18%; additionally, global supply is expected to contract by 2%.
Technically, silver is experiencing renewed buying interest, evidenced by a 4.83% increase in open interest to 12,771 contracts, alongside a price rise of Rs 825, suggesting enhanced market participation. Immediate support is positioned at Rs 232,920, and a breach beneath this threshold may drive prices down to Rs 229,575. On the upside, resistance is observed near Rs 238,500, and a sustained move above this zone could pave the way toward Rs 240,735.
