Gold prices rose by 0.28% to settle at Rs 149,753, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although the increase was limited by falling oil prices. The delicate interplay in the Strait of Hormuz, characterized by persistent tensions between the United States and Iran, continues to sustain the demand for secure refuges. Nonetheless, a cautious perspective in light of key US employment metrics, including job openings, ADP employment data, and nonfarm payroll figures, is constraining significant upward movement as investors assess the potential policy trajectory of the Federal Reserve.
At its core, global gold demand remains robust. Total demand experienced a year-on-year increase of 2%, amounting to 1,230.9 metric tons in the first quarter of 2026, according to the World Gold Council. Investment demand, particularly for bars and coins, saw a remarkable increase of 42%, whereas central bank acquisitions grew by 3%, offsetting a considerable 23% decline in jewellery demand. China continues to lead in demand expansion, with premiums rising to a range of $16 to $20 per ounce, fueled by pre-holiday stockpiling activities.
In contrast, Indian demand remains subdued, with dealers offering discounts amid considerable price fluctuations and a weakening domestic currency. On the supply and policy front, gold holdings in London vaults increased by 1.4% to 9,339 tons, reflecting stable inventories. Furthermore, China’s initiative to streamline gold import processes is expected to enhance trade efficiency and strengthen market liquidity. The outlook remains supported by expectations of steady central bank acquisitions and rising investment demand throughout the year.
From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing short covering, indicated by a 1.67% decline in open interest to 9,814 lots, coupled with a price rise of Rs 414. Immediate support is noted at Rs 149,170, with further downside potential extending to Rs 148,595. On the upside, resistance is positioned at Rs 150,380, and a sustained movement above this threshold could drive prices toward Rs 151,015.