Gold experienced a modest increase of 0.16%, concluding at Rs 151,352, bolstered mainly by declining crude oil prices and a depreciating U.S. dollar. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and sustained inflationary pressures are maintaining a robust demand for safe-haven assets. In March, inflation in the United States experienced an uptick, primarily fueled by increasing gasoline prices. This development bolsters the prevailing sentiment that the Federal Reserve is likely to sustain its existing policy approach for a prolonged duration. Global monetary policy has maintained a broadly accommodative stance, as major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan, have opted to keep interest rates unchanged.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for the third consecutive meeting in April 2026. Nonetheless, a division surfaced within the FOMC, evidenced by an 8-4 voting split, indicating an increasing internal disagreement regarding the trajectory of future interest rates. On the demand side, India experienced muted physical purchasing as a result of price fluctuations and the depreciation of the rupee, whereas Chinese demand saw an uptick in anticipation of the May Day holiday, leading to increased premiums.
In the first quarter of 2026, global gold demand experienced a year-on-year increase of 2%, reaching 1,230.9 tonnes. This growth was primarily driven by a significant rise in bar and coin investment, alongside consistent purchases by central banks, even as jewellery demand saw a substantial decline of 23%. China prominently drove investment demand, exhibiting a remarkable 67% increase in bar and coin acquisitions. From a supply perspective, London vault holdings increased by 1.4% to reach 9,339 tonnes by the end of March. Furthermore, the regulatory easing in China regarding gold trade may contribute to an increase in market liquidity.
From a technical perspective, the market is experiencing short covering, evidenced by a slight decrease in open interest of 0.08%, bringing it to 9,083 contracts, while prices have increased by Rs 241. Immediate support is observed at Rs 149,990, with additional downside potential toward Rs 148,630. Resistance is positioned at Rs 152,460, and a breakout beyond this threshold may propel prices towards Rs 153,570.